Forsyth County is Aging

Older, more diverse, and on the move...

In The News |


This story was originally published in the Winston Salem Journal on January 11, 2016.

By Wesley Young

image 1 - article It’s about halfway to the 2020 Census from 2010, but trends already show that Forsyth County is older, more diverse and on the move since those Census forms last came in the mail. The median age in Forsyth County crept up from 37.2 to 37.9 between the 2010 Census and 2014 estimates, the latest available.

While that might seem a trivial increase, it’s not: People who study population trends say it’s a harbinger of an aging cohort of baby boomers in combination with smaller family sizes. “It’s a trend not just in Forsyth County,” said Russell Smith, a geographer at Winston-Salem State University. “People are attracted to the region because you have the mountains and the coast and it is more affordable.”

Richard Gottlieb, the president and chief executive of Senior Services here, shared projections that show that the number of people in Forsyth over age 60 — some 65,000 in 2010 — could leap to more than 85,000 by 2020 and more than 100,000 by 2030. The Census Bureau said that 13 percent of the county’s population was over 65 in 2010, but that by 2014 the percentage had risen to 14.3 percent. On the other end of the spectrum, the percentage of young children is dropping: Those under 5 years old in Forsyth made up 6.8 percent of the population in 2010, but in 2014 that group was down to 6.3 percent of the total. Chalk it up to a big recession that still hasn’t been followed by enough of a recovery to make people feel confident, Smith said. “Any time you have instability in the economy, it makes people put off decisions about the future, and having kids is part of that,” Smith said.

In 2010, 32.4 percent of the households in Forsyth County had one or more people under the age of 18 living there. By 2014, that slice of the total had dropped to 31.6 percent. Conversely, the percentage of households with someone over 65 living there rose from 23.4 percent to 26.1 percent during the same period. “You are starting to see more and more grandparents living with their children,” Smith said, “A generation ago, everyone expected to have the parent in one place and the kid in the other. We are starting to see families co-habiting across generations.”

image 2 in article The estimates also show a growing percentage of people living alone. Some 30 percent of households had only one resident in 2010, and by 2014 that figure was up to an estimated 32.4 percent. Gottlieb said that while society can meet many of seniors’ physical needs, the need for social contact is just as important. “People are living longer and in a much more mobile society,” Gottlieb said. “The children live in another state, and that is a challenge for the community. Many seniors live alone and have health problems. They are isolated. Some of the biggest challenges are loneliness, boredom, a lack of meaningful activities.”

Aging trends differ by race and ethnicity. Where the Hispanic and black population is more youthful, the non-Hispanic white population is getting older. According to the Census Bureau, the median age among Hispanics in Forsyth County is about 22, while the median age for blacks is 34. Among non-Hispanic whites, the median age is about 45. Trends toward greater population diversity continued from 2010 to 2014. The percentage of the population in Forsyth that is non-Hispanic and white dropped from 58.7 percent in 2010 to 57.5 percent in 2014, while the black percentage stayed about the same, at 25.6 percent. The percentage of the total that was Hispanic rose from 11.9 percent in 2010 to 12.6 percent in 2014.

Meanwhile, after the Great Recession slowed down migration in the earlier years of the century, it appears county residents are back on the move:

  • The percentage of people who said they lived in the same house as a year ago dropped between 2010 and 2014, from about 87 percent to around 81 percent.
  • About 3 percent of Forsyth County residents said in 2014 that they had lived in a different state the previous year, and that was a significant increase from the 2010 estimate, when less than 2 percent reported that.
  • The percentages of residents moving from another county in the state or simply to a different house in Forsyth also rose.

When Smith heard those numbers, he predicted that the statistics would also show more renters and fewer homeowners, and he was right: where almost 64 percent of the housing units in Forsyth were dwelt in by an owner in 2010, by 2014 the percentage had dropped to about 60 percent. “That is a huge fallout from the mortgage crisis” and the state of the economy,” Smith said. “Younger people are delaying getting married and delaying purchasing a place,” he said. “When you rent a place, you have the flexibility to move more easily.”

Demographers at the Census Bureau predict that the median age in the U.S. will rise to 38.5 by 2020, 40.1 by 2030, and 43 by 2060. While the explosive growth of the county’s Hispanic population was big news earlier in the century, that population’s youth hasn’t kept the median age Forsyth from creeping up. Gottlieb said that while some people talk about a coming “senior tsunami,” he thinks that is putting a negative spin on changes that ignore the positive contributions that seniors can make.

“Although there are challenges with a growing senior population, there are many opportunities and pluses as well,” Gottlieb said, adding that seniors are consumers, volunteers, taxpayers, and civic and business leaders. “We often hear about the importance of attracting young entrepreneurs and job growth,” he said. “But it is also important to recognize that older citizens play an important role in our economy and are often overlooked.”


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